After thanking Partner and reminding ourselves to keep a straight "poker" face, our third task is to count our tricks.
Dummy: | A x | A K 10 4 | A K Q J 10 | K J | ← North |
West | + | + | + | + | East |
Declarer: | Q | 9 8 7 6 | x x x x | 10 x x x | ← South |
Your next task is the define your goal or
"target".
At IMPs or rubber, this usually involves
Making your contract.
Only if you are playing in a sacrifice, does your target change to that of holding
the damage down to an amount commensurate with
whatever you are sacrificing against.
For example, if they can make 4♥ for 620, while you toil in 4♠
doubled, you will want to lose no more than –500.
At MatchPoints, your target is not quite so
clear.
Basically, you must aim to take enough
tricks to beat the scores attained by others
holding your cards.
If, for example, you are
in a 2♦ contract, and notice that 1NT is a plausible contract
that will make 8 tricks for 120, you will need
to make ten tricks for +130 in order to beat the
many "notrumpers".
Your first task after thanking partner
for the dummy is to count your tricks.
Start
with your certain tricks.
Then start planning
how you may be able to improve on this total.
As the play proceeds, count your opponents' cards in each suit.
This mental exercise requires practice, but if you get into
the habit of doing it on every hand, your "card sense" will improve ... and will come in very
handy in many endings.
Watch your opponents'
signals carefully for any clues that they may
render.
Always make careful note of their
signalling methods, and ask questions wherever
appropriate.
Bear in mind the bidding.
If an
opponent shows great length in one suit (as
with, say, a weak 2-bid), chances are that this
player's Partner will have length in any other
suit.
Also keep in mind the fact that any
non-preemptive bid by any opponent tends to
increase that player's chances of holding any
outstanding honour.
In such cases, then,
COUNT THAT OPPONENTS points as they appear.
You can often locate an opponent's HCPs by
inferring that they "need" this card in order
to have enough for their bid.
Planning is integral to increasing your number
of certain tricks towards your target.
Vital to this
process is a grounding in the odds of various plans
working.
Barring any bidding by the opponents, a
finesse is a 50% chance.
The chance of finding two
cards favourably placed is (50% x 50% =) 25%.
Suits tend to break "off-center".
(a) If there are six outstanding cards in a suit, then, the odds are (about 2-1) in favour of a 4-2 split. About 36% of the time, it will break 3-3, with 5-1 and 6-0 breaks taking up less than 2% between them.
(b) With five cards outstanding, the odds favour a 3-2 split about 2-1 over a 4-1 break. "Hawaii" (i.e., 5-0) splits are rare (1%), unless you happen to be my partner and we are in a critical slam — whereupon the odds zoom up to 100%. :(
(c) With 4 cards outstanding, the percentages favour a 3-1 (50%) over a 2-2 split (40%), with a 4-0 break occurring 10% of the time.
(d) 3 outstanding cards will split 2-1 about 2/3 of the time, with a 3-0 break occurring once in three times.
These simple percentages will prove invaluable in your planning. If, for example, you must choose between hinging your target on either a 3-3 split (36%) or a finesse (50%), Take the hook ! ("hook" means "finesse").
Often you will find yourself in a
situation where achieving your target seems
impossible.
Here, our approach must be to try
to find some favourable lie of the cards (or some
ruse) that will allow us to succeed.
No matter
how outlandish the line of play may be, we must
pursue a slim chance where the alternative is
No chance.
When desperate, then, be optimistic.
On the other hand, a secure contract will often be lost, because we were too complacent and failed to account for the One unlikely event which would cause us to fail in our quest. When you seem safe, then, be extremely suspicious.
These two maxims give us "DOSES": when Desperate be Optimistic, when Safe be Extremely Suspicious.
Dummy: | x x x | K Q x | A K Q J 10 | 3 2 | ← North |
West | + | + | + | + | East |
Declarer: | A x | x x x | x x | A K 10 9 5 4 | ← South |
South, playing in 6NT, receives the ♠K lead.
Since there will be no time to work on a
Heart trick, South starts with only 1 Spade, 2 Club
and 5 Diamond tricks.
The remaining four will have to come from the Clubs.
Therefore, South must
go to dummy with a Diamond and immediately finesse
♣10, hoping East has started with ♣QJx.
Dummy: | x x | x x x | A K Q x x x x | x | ← North |
West | + | + | + | + | East |
Declarer: | A K Q | A K Q | x x | A K x x x | ← South |
Dummy: | K 7 6 5 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | Q 3 2 | ← South |
As South, consider this holding:
Dummy: | K 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 3 2 | ← South |
Play SMALL towards BIG.Note that the expression reads "PLAY small towards big" and not simply "LEAD small towards big". Consider the case of the "free finesse":
Dummy: | A 5 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | Q 3 2 | ← South |
Dummy: | A Q | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 3 2 | ← South |
The Double Finesse is another logical extension of this simple theme.
Dummy: | A Q 10 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 4 3 2 | ← South |
Dummy: | A J 10 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 4 3 2 | ← South |
When we have high cards in both hands we employ the "LONG and SHORT" rule, leading from the LONGer suit towards the SHORTer suit. This will help unblock the suit, where necessary, and will often retain the option of finessing later.
Dummy: | K 10 x x x | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | Q 9 2 | ← South |
One of the exceptions to the "play small towards big" rules occurs, when you have a doubleton Queen or Jack and the lead will be coming around to your Ax(xx).
Suppose West leads ♦5 here:
Dummy: | Q 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A 3 2 | ← South |
Dummy: | J 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A 3 2 | ← South |
If we add any good spot cards into the mix, the recommendation may swing back in favour of "2nd hand low" (i.e., playing small towards big).
Dummy: | Q 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A 10 2 | ← South |
This rule, often expressed as
"Remember that the cards have BACKS on them",is fundamental. You must always bear in mind that, on the subject of what you have in your hand, you are a genius. Others at the table are ... well, far less prescient — and you want to keep it that way as Declarer. After all, Declarer doesn't have to worry about fooling partner !
Dummy: | x x | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A K x | ← South |
Dummy: | 8 7 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A J 6 2 | ← South |
Dummy: | 8 7 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A 9 6 2 | ← South |
We will often find ourselves ducking a trick
which we could win, with the hope of exhausting one
opponent in the suit.
This is particularly common
in NoTrump Contracts, but does appear often in suit
contracts as well.
Dummy: | A x x | K Q x x | J x x | K x x | ← North |
West | + | + | + | + | East |
Declarer: | x x x | J 10 x x | A x | A Q J x | ← South |
West | Ollie | East | You |
1 | |||
1 | Dble | Pass | 2 |
Pass | 4 | Pass | Pass |
Pass |
West: | K Q J x x | x x | K Q x | x x x |
Often you will be in a situation where, one opponent presents a particular danger. In such instances, we strain to keep the other opponent on lead if we must lose a trick.
At IMPs, you have:
Dummy: | A Q J | x x | 9 x x x x | A Q 10 | ← North |
West | + | + | + | + | East |
Declarer: | K x | A x x | A Q 10 | 9 x x x x | ← South |
West: | 10 9 | K Q J x x | K J x | K x x |
Endplays are often a natural outcrop of counting a hand well. You will often find yourself in a situation where you have a "tenace" (i.e., the "1st and 3rd" or "2nd and 4th" best card in a suit), and need to put a defender on lead, forcing them to lead into your holding.
Suppose you hold ♦AQ10, and feel
that LHO has ♦KJ9 left.
If you play off ♦A, you will take no more tricks.
But if you Exit with the ♦Q or ♦10, LHO must concede that
last two tricks to you !
A variation on this common theme is the "strip and endplay". Here you find yourself in 6♥:
Dummy: | A x | J x x x | A x x x | J x x | ← North |
West | + | + | + | + | East |
Declarer: | K x | A K x x x | K J x | A K Q | ← South |
West: | Q J 10 x | Q x x | Q 10 9 | x x x |
Novices often wonder why experts are able to
succeed with so many finesses.
Aren't finesses a 50%
proposition for everyone ? Yes, they are, but an
astute Declarer can increase the success rate of hir
finesses in a variety of ways, including:
1. Counting the opponents' points.
If an opponent has shown 12 HCPs so far, but did not open when given the chance, that player's partner is marked for All of the remaining outstanding HCPs.
2. Reading the opponents' signals.
If an opponent leads a small card, you might finesse with dummy's AQx at trick #1. But, if LHO leads a Higher card, which looks like "top of nothing", we may look for another way to make out target.
3. Draw inferences from the bidding (if any).
Play the partner of any pre-emptor for most cards outside their bid suit. Play Opener or Overcaller for most cards in any suit.
Even when the experienced player seems to have
nothing to go on, they still make slightly more than
50% of their finesses !
How ?
– By applying some very basic rules.
The first rule applies ONLY to the trump Queen:
What about Other outstanding honours ?
With Nothing else to go on, employ the "Hurdles Rule":
Why does this increase the chance
of Opener's RHO holding more HCPs than Opener's LHO ?
–
Imagine two groups of 1000 people.
The first group
failed to jump over a 1-foot-high hurdle.
The second
group failed to jump over a 3-foot-high hurdle.
Which group probably has the better high jumpers ?
The second group !
Similarly, we should assume that RHO's failure
to bid over a higher call than LHO is far less limiting
than Opener's LHO's inability to clear a lower obstacle.
The well known "Principle of Restricted Choice"
states that, if we are missing two honours, and an
opponent plays one on the first round, we should
assume this to be that player's last card in the suit.
Dummy: | A K 10 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 9 8 7 6 | ← South |
Since the two honours ♥QJ are rarely doubleton, come to your hand and finesse, expecting West to have started with ♥Q532 and East with a singleton ♥Jack.
Because the expression "Principle of Restricted Choice" is so difficult to remember, repeat and decipher, we have invented the helpful mnemonic:
"2HARD" - 2 Honours Are Rarely Doubleton.
Novices tend to be intimidated by the concept
of squeezes, dismissing them as the domain of more
experienced players.
In truth, squeezes can be even easier than finesses !
The basis of all squeezes is
the idea of "isolating" one opponent, "overloading"
that opponent by forcing them to guard TWO (or more) suits.
(1) First, we should start by losing any tricks
we need to lose early.
If, for example, we need
to make 12 tricks, and can only see 11, lose one
trick as early as possible so as to pave the way
for making the remaining 12.
This is called "rectifying the count".
(2) Next, we start running off all of our winners, making certain we retain an entry to the other hand. Setting up a winner in the other hand will not help us, if we cannot enter the other hand to enjoy it !
(3) The third item that we need is a "threat"; a card (one we are threatening to promote) which only One opponent can guard against. The Simple Squeeze, then, usually comes into play at trick #11.
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South plays ♦A.
What can poor West do ?
If West pitches ♥A, South will
toss ♠3 from dummy, and score ♥2 !
And if
West jettisons ♠K or ♠Q, South ditches
the now-useless ♥2, and claims the last two tricks
with ♠A3 !
This, then, is the key: whatever
West (the person you are squeezing here) pitches
at trick #11, Declarer pitches the Other suit (from
Dummy, in this case).
This is nothing more than an application of another fundamental rule of card
play: Keep winners, toss losers.
Note that, if at some point in the play South had disposed of ♥2 (say, to keep a
3rd Spade), there would be no threat to West !
West would simply get rid of the useless ♥A, and
keep ♠KQ to score a trick.
Note also that East is kept busy guarding those Diamonds, and
cannot help West guard Spades.
Had East been dealt another Heart, though, East could guard them and
allow West to concentrate on Spades.
In order for the squeeze to work, then, West must be "isolated"
as the only one who can guard Hearts.
Returning to the issue of "rectifying the count", you will
note that if we add one Spade to all four hands
above, the squeeze doesn't work, because West can
pitch Spades and leave East to "mind the store"
with the ♠Jx.
Hence, by ducking a spade early
in the play (while we still have control of all
four suits), we may come to the above ending.
And that is really all there is to the Simple Squeeze !
How can you remember these four
essentials ?
Use the mnemonic "CITE": Count,
Isolate, Threat and Entry.
Rectify the Count,
have a Threat, Isolate your victim and keep an
Entry.
If those four things are in place, run
your winners and wait for your opponent to start
getting uncomfortable around trick 11 !
This lesson is intended as a primer only.
For a far more comprehensive textbook on play, I
strongly recommend Louis H. Watson's "Play of the Hand".
The definitive work on bidding will never
be written, but the definitive work on card play
(defence and declarer play) has been ! :)
1.
Partner raises your 1NT opening to 3NT on ♣AKQ9x
and nothing else.
All other suits are reasonably
secure.
You calculate that you need Four Club
tricks to make your contract.
Bearing in mind that
you have no side entry to Dummy, how do you play
the Club suit ...
Dummy: | A K Q 9 2 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 6 5 3 | ← South |
2. You need only Three Diamond tricks here:
Dummy: | K 5 4 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | A J 3 2 | ← South |
3. About leading unsupported honours ... .
(3a) Playing against opponents who know to cover an honour with an honour, is it ever right to lead ♥J here ?
Dummy: | A K 4 2 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | J 6 5 3 | ← South |
4. Your opponents, who play standard bidding and carding methods, lead ♠7 against 1NT:3NT.
Dummy: | A Q 10 2 | ← North |
West | + | East |
Declarer: | 8 3 | ← South |
RAINBOW Series |
The Rainbow Series, from 10:00 A.M. to 12:30 PST every weekday, is a lecture program on the SAYC system, from Opening Bids all the way through to the conventional aspects of SAYC. Unlike the FireSide and 5th Chair sessions mentioned above, the Rainbow Series is a semi-private lesson program for our students. Nevertheless, you are invited to stop by and "eavesdrop" on the discussion from the Spectator's Loft. If you have any questions arising from these notes, or about the Rainbow Lesson Series, please do not hesitate to email me at: cpw@escape.ca |
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