The Four Point Principle
Once we have some idea of how many High Card Points
("HCPs") our partner has, we can make a reasonable
estimate as to how many "dream" cards (i.e., cover cards
of our choice, "perfect", "ideal", "chosen", "golden" or
"planted" cards) that they will provide us.
We accomplish
this by dividing with Four the HCPs that Partner has
suggested.
If all we have is not a round number, we could
round up or down to the nearest multiple of 4.
For example:
| HCPs Promised | Rounded to | Dream Cards |
| 6- 9 HCPs | 8 | 2 |
| 12-14 HCPs | 12 | 3 |
| 15-17 HCPs | 16 | 4 |
| 20-21 HCPs | 20 | 5 |
In this way, if Partner raises our opening suit
bid to the 2-level, as with 1♥:2♥, we might expect
approximately 8 HCPs, translating to two "ideal" cards.
If Partner opens 1-of-a-suit and makes a minimum rebid,
we might play them for 13-14 points,
but some of those
might be distributional points.
Hence, we would assume
12 HCPs, and expect Three such "chosen" cards in
Opener's hand.
Similarly, a 1NT Opener should provide four such "perfect" cards; a 2NT Opener, five.
"Okay, so now what do we do with this information ?"
Easy. You mentally place the given number of "planted"
cards into Partner's hand.
"Which ones ?"
Whichever ones you want !
Then, count your losers according to the
Fractional Loser Count (FRC), where we assume that Partner is
always on lead.
Hence:
(a) No 4th or longer card in a suit is a loser.
(b) Any small card is a loser.
(c) Kx is 1½ losers, since the odds of the Ace onside is 50-50.
(d) Qxx is 2¾ losers, since the odds of the AK onside is only 25%.
Of course, if the bidding suggests that Partner
will be short in a suit, we would not count those losers.
For example, ♥xxx is at most one loser if
the oppponents bid Hearts vigourously, thereby
showing 9+ card length there, marking our Partner
for a singleton or void in Hearts.
Suppose we figure Partner for 10 HCPs.
"Do we round up to 12 or down to 8 ?"
Neither ! We count that as 2½ "goodies".
"What is half a cover card, though ?"
Answer: the Queen of our choice.
We open this hand with 1♦:
A x
A K x x
A Q x x x
x x
When 1♦-2♣-Dble-Pass
comes back to us, (while a one-level free call shows 8+ ,
but) most conservative players will have 10+ at the two level.
"Should we bid 2♥, 3♥ or 4♥ ?"
Answer: 4♥.
Give Partner ♥Qxxx, ♦K and either ♠K or ♣A. That leads to 2 black-suit losers and a possible Diamond loser: 10-11 tricks.
Consider these example hands:
A Q 10 x x
K Q x
A x x
Q x
"After 1♠:2♠, should we bid 4♠ ?"
Give Partner two "golden" cards and find out !
"♠K and ♥Ace ?"
That leaves us with 4 minor-suit losers.
"♠K and ♣A ?
One Club loser, 2 Diamonds and 1 or 2 Heart losers.
Hence, we should not even invite game here !
K x x
A K x x x
A K J 10
x
While we may be somewhat deficient in points for 6♥ after 1♥:3♥ (a limit raise, 10-12), we can put ♠AQ and ♥Q into Partner's hand, and then hope for Diamonds to behave.
Hence, at IMPs we might try cuebidding 3♠
here, and hope that Partner cannot cuebid 4♣.
We need Partner to have values outside Clubs.
A K x
A Q
A K J 10 x x x
x
After 2♣:2NT (7-9 flat), virtually any two useful cards will allow 6♦ to have a good chance: ♠Q, ♥K and ♣A being the three we'd most like to see. If Partner has 3-5 Diamonds, we will likely not need ♦Q. Bid 6♦ at IMPs, at least.
Practice using the Four Point Principle on
every hand and watch your bidding improve !
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