Hand Evaluation
Hand Evaluation
So critical to "bidding judgement" as to be almost interchangeable terms, "hand evaluation" is a process which continues during the auction.
As the bidding proceeds, bad hands often "improve" while good hands sometimes turn into dirt. While these random thoughts on the subject pale in comparison to Mike Lawrence's great contributions to this area, they may serve as a basis for subsequent refinement.
The Work Point Count is the easiest and most basic of all methods of distinguishing good hands from bad ones. This method simply assigns "High Card Points", or "HCPs", according to this formula:
Any Ace = 4 HCPs.
Any King = 3 HCPs.
Any Queen = 2 HCPs.
Any Jack = 1 HCPs.
There are 40 HCPs in the deck.
This is a reflection of the fact that a 6-5-1-1 hand with 8 HCPs will usually take far more tricks than a 4-3-3-3 hand with 8 HCPs. There are TWO types of distributional points.
Since we do NOT award Long-Suit and Short-Suit Points to the same hand, the question arises: When do we use one and not the other ?&
The general rule here is that we use Short-suit points, whenever we have "Major-suit length", which we will define as any 5+card major OR 4-4 in the majors.
We use Long-Suit points, only if we do NOT have "Major-suit length". Hence, with 4-1-4-4 distribution, we assign NO distributional points; but with 4-4-1-4 distribution, we assign TWO points for the singleton Diamond.
The reason for this is that with minor-suit length, we will usually endeavour to play in NoTrump, where short suits are something of a LIABILITY, and long suits may provide a source of tricks.
Only with an 8+card Major-suit fit, will we usually eschew NoTrump play in favour of suit play, where short suits allow us to score tricks with our small trumps.
Open any hand that has 13+ points.
Responder counts hir distributional points
in the same way until supporting partner's 5-card
suit.
Then, Responder uses an accelerated version
of Short-Suit points known as "Dummy Points":
This reflects that fact that any ruffs with Dummy's shorter trumps will ADD to the total number of trump tricks that we will take.
We see a variation of ROLANDS in evaluating Pre-Emptive hands. Here, we add the total number of cards in our long suit to the total number of honors (Ace, King, Queen or Jack) in that suit, and pre-empt at that level. With ♠KQxxxx, then, we would open 2♠ (two top honors + Six spades is EIGHT, so we contract for eight tricks with 2♠).
A secondary honour (i.e., 10, Jack or Queen) in our long suits (yours or partner's) should be treated as gold. Secondary honors in our short suits are usually worthless. The ideal supporting hand, then, has Aces (and Kings) in the suits partner is NOT bidding, Queens and Jacks in the suits partner IS bidding.
Any card which will cover one of partner's losers is a "cover card". An Ace opposite a void may or may NOT cover one of partner's losers (depending on whether partner can cash this Ace before the opponents cash their winners). A King opposite a singleton is NOT a cover card. Consistent with the "In and Out" theory above, secondary honors in partner's long suit should be viewed as cover cards.
It is a rule of thumb in bidding that we
will take partner for ONE cover card for every
FOUR HCPs that Parner has shown in the auction.
This is called the "4-Point Principle".
For example, if partner opens 1NT, we would play hir
for (16 / 4 = ) FOUR such cover cards, since 16 HCPs
is an average 1NT opener (15-17).
Similarly, after
1♥:2♥, Opener might guess that Responder will hold
about (8 / 4 = ) TWO "cover cards", since 8 points
is about average for such a raise.
Having strength in RHO's suits is good, since the chances of these cards taking tricks increases. Having Length in RHO's suits is also good, since partner can over-ruff LHO (who, along with partner, is likely short in this suit). Length or strength in LHO's suit should be devaluated.
When your Kings and secondary honors are in THEIR suits, choose to defend. A singleton King opposite "xxx" won't take a trick on offence, but it may on defence !
Doubletons are disastrous holdings — especially in competitive situations. If the opponents sacrifice against your game, tend to double and NOT to bid on when holding a doubleton (especially one in their suit). Tripletons are "death holdings" too, although often not quite as bad as doubletons, since tripletons raise the possibility of partner having a singleton or void.
Spot cards become most important in two instances:
when you are considering doubling the opponents based
on long trumps; and, when you are considering a
pre-emptive opening bid.
I would rather open 2♥ on
♥QJ109xx than on ♥KQxxxx;
Opposite a singleton or a
void, the first suit will lose two tricks, the second
suit likely 3 tricks.
When one of our suits has
been supported, spot cards are less important — especially
if there is likely a 9+card trump fit.
When you have
a long suit with good spots that partner is reluctant
to support, you must act aggressively, since partner may
be looking at a singleton or void and be worried about
multiple slow trump losers.