Probabilities in Bridge Bidding
- « Fitting Probabilities
in Bridge »
As opposed to the familiar probablities like 4-3 break odds in defenders,
an entirely new concept Fitting Probability is introduced here,
which will tell you, for example, how your partner is likely to have two cards or
more in Hearts, when you have 6 cards in Hearts. Or, even how you are
likely to have a fit, when you have four cards in both Spades and Hearts.
- « Frequency of 15 -17 HCP Balanced Hands ».
How often do you expect to open 1NT on 15 -17 HCP
balanced hands, as compared
with 16 -18 ones ? You will know exact values of probabilities.
- « Are you Lotter ? »
An introductory text for beginners in Bridge on the Law of Total Tricks (LoTT). Toward the end,
knowledge of fitting probability is emphasized in application of LoTT.
- « Further Analysis of
LoTT in Bridge »
The results obtained from the author's software LottAnalyzer are summarized here.
Chief contributions are:
- Demonstration of independence of LoTT from HCPs.
- Statistical analysis of the LoTT in Notrumps.
Statistical Analysis of Corrections on LoTT
Various kinds of corrections (or adjustments) on LoTT are studied
to see if they are appropriate, and how often they need be considered.
Free Softwares based on Ginsberg's Double-Dummy Library
With what probability will you succeed in 4
game, having 26-Pts strength ? What about 3NT with
25 Pts ? The software answers the probability based on 717,102 random deals.
Viewer for Ginsberg's double-dummy library to study how LoTT works or not in
Under the options you will select, this software scans all the 717,102 random deals and
respond with realtime tables and figures, which will exhibit how LoTT holds and to what extent.
A novel Notrump Law formula is found to hold much better than the Cohen's popular one.
WEB Pages on LoTT Retrieved
© bocosan (2012, summer)